RBA and BOJ Today
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks were heavy overnight with traders taking profit ahead of a big week of important data. August Factory orders fell -0.5% vs. -0.4% previously. August Home Sales rallied 4.3% in August but analysts are quick to note the 30% drop in May/June. In US stocks, DJIA -78 points closing at 10751, S&P -9 points closing at 1135 and NASDAQ -36 points closing at 2344. Looking ahead, September ISM Services forecast at 52 vs. 51.5 previously.
The Euro (EUR) the Euro jumped at the Asian open before falling steadily for the rest of the day on a combination of weak US stocks and Eurozone Austerity concerns. October Sentix gained to 8.8 vs. 7.6 previously. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3665 and a high of 1.3810 before closing at 1.3680. Looking ahead, August Retail Sales are forecast at 0.2% vs. 1.1% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) little action was seen on the major with focus instead on crosses. The BOJ meet today and the market is very keen to see if the Central bank expands easing measures or comments on the strong Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.19 and a high of 83.89 before closing the day around 83.45 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ forecast to hold at 0.1%.
The Sterling (GBP) did well as crosses gained and the market responded to improvement in the UK PMI Construction survey to 53.8 in September. EUR/GBP fell from multi-month highs above 0.8700. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5747 and a high of 1.5872 before closing the day at 1.5820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Services PMI forecast at 51 vs. 51.3 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under mild selling pressure for most of the day as the market pared back gains before today’s RBA rate meeting. With Sydney away on bank holiday yesterday the Asian open and reaction to key economic data today may set the mood for the rest of the week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9651 and a high of 0.9737 before closing the US session at 0.9680. Looking ahead, RBA forecast to raise rates to 4.75% vs. 4.5% previously. August Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.7% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) failed to breach $1320 and eased back on profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1311 and high of USD $1320 before ending the New York session at USD$1314 an ounce. Oil rallied before easing back to opening levels. WTI Oil Closed +$0.10 at $81.50 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.3381 | 1.3619 | 1.3675 | 1.3818 | 1.3896 |
| USD/JPY | 82.88 | 83.17 | 83.55 | 84.50 | 85.93 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5503 | 1.5670 | 1.5825 | 1.5999 | 1.6253 |
| AUD/USD | 0.9442 | 0.9559 | 0.9670 | 0.9751 | 0.9850 |
| XAU/USD | 1263.00 | 1283 | 1313 | 1324 | 1340 |
| OIL/USD | 80.00 | 81.00 | 81.50 | 82.50 | 84.00 |
Euro – 1.3675
Initial support at 1.3619 (Oct 1 low) followed by 1.3381 (Sept 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3818 (Sep 28 High) followed by 1.4218 (Dec 22 2009 low)
Yen – 83.55
Initial support is located at 83.17 (Sept 30 high) followed by 82.88 (Sept 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.50 (Sep 27 high) followed by 85.93 (Sept 16 high).
Pound – 1.5825
Initial support at 1.5670 (Sept 30 low) followed by 1.5503 (Sept 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5999 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1.6253 (76.4% retrace of 1.6878-1.4231).
Australian Dollar – 0.9670
Initial support at 0.9559 (Sept 28 low) followed by the 0.9442 (Sep 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9751 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9850 (July 15, 2008 high).
Gold – 1313
Initial support at 1283 (Sept 28 low) followed by 1263 (Sept 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1324 (1263.20 plus 1.618 of 1236.80-1274.95) followed by 1340 (1210.30 plus 1.618 of 1157.03-1237.50).
Oil – 81.50
Initial support at 81.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 84.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall Easy Forex
