Euro Approaching Key 1.4000
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks were flat but the trend against the USD continued with fresh selling in New York. The September ADP Private Employment report disappointed falling -39k vs. 24k forecast. In US stocks, DJIA +23 points closing at 10967, S&P -1 points closing at 1159 and NASDAQ -20 points closing at 2380. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 454k vs. 453k previously.
The Euro (EUR) the rally took another leg higher on very strong German Industrial Orders at 3.4%m/m in August. The markets are not reacting to negative news as Fitch downgrading Irish Sovereign Debt only resulted in a small dip that was bought up to fresh highs. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3797 and a high of 1.3949 before closing at 1.3920. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Announcement forecast to hold at 1.0%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) hit fresh decade lows underneath the September intervention level at Y82.80. The market is cautious at these levels of any new intervention from the Bank of Japan to stem the rise of the exporting currency. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 82.73 and a high of 83.27 before closing the day around 82.95 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) struggled to push higher against the Dollar as the EUR/GBP rallied higher and the traders took profit on Cable at 1.5950. Today’s Bank of England Rate meeting should remain unchanged at 0.5% but the calls for expanding the Asset Purchase program are growing larger. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5831 and a high of 1.5942 before closing the day at 1.5890 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC Rate Announcement forecast to remain at 0.5%. Asset Purchase Program remains at 200bn.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie tracked the Euro to year highs close to 0.9800. The market is still looking at the differing central bank outlooks with RBA close to raising rates while the US Fed is looking to ease more. The Aussie benefiting from strength in commodities in recent weeks. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9692 and a high of 0.9794 before closing the US session at 0.9770. Update September Unemployment Rate is forecast at 20k vs. 31k previously. Actual +49k Jobs.
Oil & Gold (XAU) tested $1350 multiple times but the key resistance held comfortably. Overall trading with a low of USD$1338 and high of USD $1350 before ending the New York session at USD$1345 an ounce. Oil edged higher above $83 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed +$0.48 at $83.30 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.3381 | 1.3619 | 1.3920 | 1.3949 | 1.4026 |
| USD/JPY | 79.75 | 82.73 | 83.00 | 84.50 | 85.93 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5503 | 1.5670 | 1.5865 | 1.5999 | 1.6253 |
| AUD/USD | 0.9442 | 0.9540 | 0.9765 | 0.9850 | 1.0000 |
| XAU/USD | 1283.00 | 1312 | 1345 | 1350 | 1400 |
| OIL/USD | 81.00 | 82.50 | 83.30 | 84.00 | 85.00 |
Euro – 1.3920
Initial support at 1.3619 (Oct 1 low) followed by 1.3381 (Sept 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3949 (Oct 6High) followed by 1.4026 (Feb 3 high)
Yen – 83.00
Initial support is located at 82.73 (Oct 6 high) followed by 79.75 (April 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.50 (Sep 27 high) followed by 85.93 (Sept 16 high).
Pound – 1.5865
Initial support at 1.5670 (Sept 30 low) followed by 1.5503 (Sept 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5999 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1.6253 (76.4% retrace of 1.6878-1.4231).
Australian Dollar – 0.9765
Initial support at 0.9540 (Oct 5 low) followed by the 0.9442 (Sep 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9850 (July 2008 high) followed by 1.0000 (Parity).
Gold – 1345
Initial support at 1312 (Oct 5 low) followed by 1283 (Sept 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1350 (Round Number) followed by 1400 (Round Number).
Oil – 83.30
Initial support at 82.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 81.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 84.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall Easy Forex
